Chapman goes to Reds

Sunday, January 10, 2010 | |

The Cincinnati Reds have reportedly signed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman to a 5-year deal worth $25 MM with a player option for a sixth year and deferred payment through ten years. They outbid the Marlins, Nationals, Blue Jays, Angels, and probably a couple other teams for his services.

The scouting reviews on chapman pretty much coincide in that his fastball is great, he has a lot of potential, and is very raw.

As it has been proved countless times, japanese and cuban imports are risky and almost always overhyped. Hideki Matsui, Ichiro Suzuki and Kendry Morales are a few of the exceptions that have been able to perform at a top level in the major leagues.

For a team like the Reds, Making this signing has a big potential reward, but is also quite a risk. Stretching the payment out was a key part of the deal for a team with financial limitations like the Reds, though, as it could have become a real obstacle in the improvement of the team had the payment been regular. If Chapman turns out to be great, or at least very good, the deal will have been worth it. If he doesn't, they'll be in trouble, but at least for most of the 10 years of payment, that won't be a major difficulty for them. Given the way most scouts thought he wasn't a polished pitcher, it's unlikely Chapman reaches his full potential before the fourth year of the deal, so it's almost impossible that the deal becomes a bargain for the Reds.

The best shot they have at having a good/great MLB pitcher is in the last 2 years of the deal. That's probably the worst part of the deal, as a late development might put them in a position where they end up paying 30 million for one or two productive seasons from Chapman.

Just for the Record, if I'd been the Reds, I wouldn't have signed him for that much money. If there had been no other choice, then I would've saved that money to sign several young players either throguh the draft or international signings (mostly from DR and Venezuela, where players can be monitored more closely).

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